Subtle
Sample read · names changed
Pre-LOI · Project Juniper

Five brands, $62M on Amazon, up 28%. Where is it coming from?

Family-care platform · five brands · 378 live listingsPublic marketplace data only · no CIM, no data room

The page a deal team gets on day ten. Brand names are changed; the numbers are from a live read in 2026, rounded. Built to answer one question: does the Amazon business support moving to next steps?

healthy or gainingwatch itemrisk or fading
01 · At a glance

The whole book on one screen.

$62MTTM revenue, US Amazon, five brands
+28%blended year over year
$4.6Mmonthly run rate
98%Buy Box held by the brand, core three
378live listings, three storefronts
MarigoldA-
Maternity and baby care
$22.3M+31%
Category #1 with a 20-year review moat. One family is 39% of the brand.
DuneB+
Kids wipes, saline, repellent
$21.4M+24%
99% Buy Box control. Repellent +139%. Some growth bought with promos.
RinseB+
Baby-safe cleaning · 1P hybrid
$17.4M+28%
Fastest structural grower. Amazon 1P sells 26% of the brand.
ShieldC-
Insect repellent
$1.05M−23% mo
Fading while a stablemate takes the same shelf. 11% reseller leak, mending.
LumenD
Adult saline · launch phase
~$110Knew
Three SKUs. Shares its Amazon shelf with two unrelated companies.
02 · The scorecard

Six dimensions, graded from the public shelf.

Same rubric for every company, every refresh. Grades reflect only what is externally observable; the data room confirms or overturns them.

BrandGrowthChannel controlConcentrationDemand qualityPromo dependenceCatalog hygieneOverall
Marigold
A+31% YoY
Aown 3P, 98%
C39% one family
A6.3K page-1 terms
Alightest ad touch
Aclean Buy Box
A-crown jewel
Dune
B++24%, part promo
Aown 3P, 99%
Btop 3 = 55%
A7.8K page-1 terms
C+32 PEDs at 16% off
B-7-seller hero
B+growth engine
Rinse
A-+28%, launches scaling
B1P holds 26%
B-top 3 = 69%
B+3.2K page-1 terms
Bmoderate ad share
A-near clean
B+structural grower
Shield
C−23% momentum
C+11% leak, improving
Dtop family = 50%
C1.0K page-1 terms
B-ad-heavy vs share
D11 to 14 sellers
C-unresolved
Lumen
Dhero −23% YoY
F35% of a shared shelf
D3 SKUs
D0.7K page-1 terms
Claunch spend
F3 companies, 1 name
Dhygiene first
03 · Trajectory

Every core brand added roughly $4M in a year.

Prior 12 monthsTrailing 12 months
$24M $16M $8M 0 Marigold, prior 12 months: $17.1M Marigold, trailing 12 months: $22.3M, +31% Dune, prior: $17.2M Dune, TTM: $21.4M, +24% Rinse, prior: $13.6M Rinse, TTM: $17.4M, +28% Shield, prior: $0.8M Shield, TTM: $1.05M, +27% $22.3M$21.4M$17.4M$1.05M MarigoldDuneRinseShield +31%+24%+28%+27%
US marketplace estimates on the same listing set, trailing twelve months against the twelve before. Lumen launched inside the window and is excluded.
Last-month momentum
RinseRinse +0.5% last month+0.5% MarigoldMarigold +0.2% last month+0.2% DuneDune −14.8% last month, repellent season ending−14.8% ShieldShield −23.1% last month−23.1%
The two repellent-weighted brands turn down together as summer ends. Both held or gained subcategory share in the same month, so this reads as season, not share loss. Confirm against last year's fall curve.
04 · Market position

Where each franchise sits on its shelf, and which way it is moving.

Gained share last monthGave some backBubble = monthly revenue
+6 +3 0 −2 0%6%12%18%24% SHARE OF SUBCATEGORY SHARE CHANGE, PTS Rinse · Bottle wash: 23.4% share, +5.8 pts, $120K/mo Marigold · Nursing balm: 14.1% share, +3.0 pts, $673K/mo Dune · Kids saline: 18.0% share, +2.2 pts, $213K/mo Shield · Repellent lotion: 5.6% share, +1.2 pts, $65K/mo Rinse · Dish soap: 2.5% share, +0.3 pts, $378K/mo Marigold · Diaper cream: 4.4% share, −0.7 pts, $334K/mo Dune · Repellent lotion: 20.7% share, −0.6 pts, $239K/mo Marigold · Herbal tea: 18.6% share, −2.0 pts, $105K/mo Rinse · bottle wash Marigold · nursing balm Dune · saline Shield · repellent Rinse · dish soap Marigold · diaper cream Dune · repellent Marigold · tea
Up and to the right is the franchise picture: the biggest positions are also the ones still gaining. Six of eight hero franchises hold double-digit or top-tier share. Nursing balm added 3 points in a month on a $4.8M/mo subcategory. That is share capture, not category tide.
05 · Where the growth comes from

The hero grew 6%. Everything else grew 48%.

Marigold, the largest brand, is the test case. Its hero is a 20-year listing at category #1. The question is whether the rest of the catalog can carry growth without it.

Hero listing Hero +6% YoY +6% Everything else Everything else +48% YoY +48% 92% OF THE BRAND'S GROWTH CAME FROM EVERYTHING EXCEPT THE HERO
Launch waves, from the listing record
Jul 2025: first wave Q1 2026: seven products in six weeks Aug 2026: third wave JUL '25Q1 '26AUG '26 wave one7 products, 6 weekswave three The 2026 cohort is already the brand's #3 seller.
Growth is launch-driven, not hero-driven. That is a management capability, and it is the thing to underwrite. The hero is a birth-rate-linked, single-family business: the question is what could break its share, not what grows it.
06 · Control map

Who sells it, what it costs to ship, and the lever nobody has pulled.

Brand's own storefrontAmazon 1PResellers
BrandWho holds the saleFBA feesS&S liveFlag
Marigold
Own 3P 98%
21%0 of 198clean
Dune
32%n/a7 sellers
Rinse
35%n/a1P terms
Shield
24%n/a11% leak
Lumen
n/an/ashared shelf
Buy Box control is 98 to 99% on the core three, which is as good as it gets. The 26% Amazon 1P slice on Rinse is a policy choice whose economics live in Vendor Central. The fee spread, 21% to 35% of revenue, says two brands are shipping air; pack size is a margin lever. Subscribe & Save is live on none of the largest brand's 198 listings in a replenishment category. That is the cheapest point on the board.
07 · Demand

The demand is generic, and they already sit on page one.

Only 2 to 4% of first-page keyword volume is branded. This portfolio rides category demand, not brand search: fragile for a DTC story, well suited to an Amazon operator. 18,900 first-page placements across the five brands.

Terms they already own
Search termVol / moOrganic rank
nursing balm61.6K#1, 8 on page
raspberry leaf tea52.1K#3
[brand] baby7.1K#1, 34 on page
picaridin lotion10.9K#5, 7 on page
Shelves bigger than the brand
Search termVol / moOrganic rank
mosquito repellent207.9K#19 Dune
saline nasal spray141.7K#39 Lumen
baby oil137.9K#10 Marigold
diaper rash cream125.8K#20 Marigold
08 · For the data room

Eight things the public data cannot settle.

The outside view stops here. Each of these is answerable from the CIM and operating data, and together they decide whether the business is as healthy as it looks.

Verdict

The 28% is real and mostly new. Underwrite the hero flat and the launch engine at half its current rate. Carry Subscribe & Save as unpriced upside. Confirm the 1P terms, the promo load, and the seven-seller SKU in the data room before the bid.

Brand names are fictional; company, fund and product names withheld. Figures are marketplace estimates from public data, rounded, and are right on shape and rank, softer on exact dollars. A real read names everything, reconciles to Seller Central and Vendor Central, and comes with a working session with the deal team.

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